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The Illusion of Luck

Available June 1, 2026 · Long Horizon Press

The Illusion of Luck

How the Prepared Build What Others Mistake for Luck

A framework for understanding why some people consistently create opportunities and capitalize on them while others wait for luck that never arrives.

About the Book

Chase Sheffield had been told many times that he was lucky when it came to his successes. He heard it from friends, family members, and especially near-strangers, but after hearing it so many times he could not help but think that luck alone was not to blame for all his progress.

The Illusion of Luck introduces an analytical framework for evaluating how and why repetitive, compounding successes take place, and it uses Chase's own life to showcase how even the most simple positive outcomes can be produced. Sheffield argues that what the world calls luck is actually the visible result of three forces working beneath the surface: Preparedness, Opportunity, and Action.

Drawing on a life that spans rural Georgia to Yale connections, military service to energy development, and a hundred rejection letters to a career most people have not built, Sheffield shows that the distance between an observer and an outcome is what creates the illusion. Up close, luck dissolves into decisions, and the right decisions can be made more often when you know what to look for.

This is not a self-help book. It is a thinking framework for anyone who has ever looked at someone else's life and thought, They just got lucky, and wants to understand what actually happened, and more importantly, how to start producing those outcomes for themselves.

Book Details

Publisher
Long Horizon Press
Publication date
June 1, 2026
ISBN (paperback)
979-8-9957796-0-5
ISBN (ebook)
979-8-9957796-1-2
Format
6x9 inch, 208 pages

Endorsements

In four decades of leading soldiers and shaping young leaders, I have watched the same pattern Chase names here. Preparation compounds silently until the world mistakes it for fortune.

Lt. Gen. William B. Caldwell IV, U.S. Army (Ret.)

Former Commander, 82nd Airborne Division. Former President, Georgia Military College.

I've spent my career evaluating what separates the companies and careers that compound from the ones that don't. Chase has it right. The results look like luck only to those who weren't watching the work.

Ray Conley, CEO, Creekstone Energy

Former Partner, Oak Hill Capital. Former Partner, Palo Alto Investors. Former Consultant, McKinsey & Company.

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Available June 1, 2026 wherever books are sold.

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